Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
